📐 Power Curve Fit Analysis
Comprehensive balance analysis with scatter plots, target curves, and outlier detection
📖 Design Philosophy (Click to expand)
Option A: Gentle Curve
Human Enough uses a Gentle Curve power progression, informed by established card game design research and the unique context of party gameplay.
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"Rarity indicates complexity, not power level"
From Magic: The Gathering's design philosophy. Higher rarity cards should feel different and more interesting, not strictly better.
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Party Game Context
Steep power curves create "feel-bad" moments. In an 8-player game, players should feel their decisions matter more than their card draws.
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Flat Card Distribution
Unlike typical CCGs where Legendary cards are ~1% of the pool, Human Enough has 9.5% Legendary Chaos cards. High legendary frequency means steep curves would dominate gameplay.
🎯 Power Curve Target Options
Chaos Card Target Options
Action Card Target Options
Card Distribution by Rarity
Current Win Rates vs Baseline
📍 Individual Cards on Power Curve
Each point represents a card. Hover for details. Click to view card.
By Rarity
By Element
Chaos Cards by Type
📊 Statistical Distribution
Win Rate Distribution (Box Plot)
Sigma Distribution Histogram
Power Efficiency vs Win Rate by Rarity
⚠️ Outlier Analysis
Cards that deviate significantly from their target win rate
📋 Win Rate Targets Reference (8 Players)
Baseline: 12.5% (1/8 players)
⭐ Action Cards (+0.5% per tier)
Action cards provide reliable stat contributions. Minimal rarity bonuses prevent draw luck from dominating.
| Rarity | Target | Delta | Range (±2%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 12.50% | +0.00% | 10.50% - 14.50% |
| Uncommon | 13.00% | +0.50% | 11.00% - 15.00% |
| Rare | 13.50% | +1.00% | 11.50% - 15.50% |
| Epic | 14.00% | +1.50% | 12.00% - 16.00% |
| Legendary | 14.50% | +2.00% | 12.50% - 16.50% |
💥 Chaos Cards (+1.0% per tier)
Chaos cards have higher variance and more complex effects. A slightly steeper curve rewards skilled play.
| Rarity | Target | Delta | Range (±2%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 12.50% | +0.00% | 10.50% - 14.50% |
| Uncommon | 13.50% | +1.00% | 11.50% - 15.50% |
| Rare | 14.50% | +2.00% | 12.50% - 16.50% |
| Epic | 15.50% | +3.00% | 13.50% - 17.50% |
| Legendary | 16.50% | +4.00% | 14.50% - 18.50% |
💡 Additional Power Fit Metrics & Pivots
Ideas for deeper balance analysis
🎯 Target Deviation Score
Composite metric combining game and hand win rate deviation from target, weighted by play frequency.
📈 Curve Fit R²
How well actual card performance fits the intended power curve. Higher R² = better balance.
⚖️ Rarity Overlap Index
Measure how much win rate distributions between adjacent rarities overlap. High overlap = flat curve.
🔄 Consistency Score
Std deviation within rarity. Low std = consistent power level. High std = high variance cards.
🎲 Luck Factor
Ratio of game win rate variance explained by rarity vs other factors (element, type, player count).
🏆 Dominance Index
How often the highest rarity cards in a hand win vs lower rarity compositions.
📊 Type Power Spread
Compare power curves across card types (LINK, DRAW, etc.) to identify type-specific imbalances.
🌈 Element Parity
Are all elements equally viable at each rarity tier? Identify element-rarity combinations that underperform.
💰 Cost Efficiency Curve
Plot power/cost ratio against win rate by rarity. Identify if higher cost cards justify their energy.
🔗 Synergy Bonus
Compare solo card performance vs performance when played with synergistic cards.
⏱️ Game Phase Impact
How does card impact vary by game phase (early/mid/late)? Some rarities may spike at different phases.
👥 Player Count Scaling
How does the power curve shift with different player counts? Ensure balance at 4, 8, and 12 players.
📚 Cross-Reference Research
Magic: The Gathering - New World Order
MTG's design framework explicitly states that rarity gates complexity, not power. Commons should be simple but competitive, while rares/mythics offer interesting decisions.
Hearthstone - Class Identity Research
Blizzard's research found players prefer "interesting options" over "strictly better" upgrades. Power creep through rarity creates chase fatigue.
Party Game Design Principles
Research on multiplayer party games shows rubber-banding and perceived fairness are critical. Players leave games feeling cheated when outcomes feel predetermined by card draws.